Options to End the War Against Iran

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Darrell Castle provides some options to end the war that Washington is currently fighting against Iran.

Transcription / Notes

OPTIONS TO END THE WAR AGAINST IRAN

Hello this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 1^st day of May in this the year of our Lord 2026. Yes today is May Day but my beat once again is war. This time I am looking for options to end the war that Washington is currently fighting against Iran.

Donald Trump began the U.S./Israel war against Iran apparently because he wanted to deny Iran the chance to build its own nuclear weapon. That was at least the stated reason for starting the war. Suppose you are Iran and the U.S, demands that you dismantle and cease your nuclear weapons development program. Would you have any reason to comply with that demand considering what has happened to other countries in the Middle East.

Acquiring nuclear weapons might be the only way left to prevent becoming a victim of a regime change war. Think about it like this for a moment. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Iran, Venezuela, Russia and North Korea have all been demonized by the U.S. in one way or another this century. The only two that remain uninvaded, Russia and North Korea have nuclear weapons and the others do not. The leaders of those countries who do not have nuclear weapons are dead or locked in prison.

I ask myself if the United States would be threatened if Iran were allowed to develop nuclear weapons and my conclusion is that it would not. Israel would be threatened because a nuclear armed Iran would serve as a blocking force to the expansion of Israel and Netanyahu’s plans for greater Israel. If Iran had nuclear weapons Operation Epic Fury would not have happened or at least logic tells me. Why then, other than Bibi’s influence, did Donald Trump launch this war.

He must have been told and must have believed that the Iranian government would collapse and flee in the face of overwhelming U.S. and Israeli air attacks. If he believed that then he must not be a student of history because that theory has never worked throughout the history of air power. It worked in World War II as part of a combined arms attack that involved millions of troops fighting around the world in ground combat. Later wars like Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan it was assumed that air power and destruction from the air would make the difference but it did not.

If a belief that Iran could be forced or persuaded to surrender or agree to U.S./Israeli demands as a result of destruction from the air was the cause of the attacks then obviously that was a false conclusion. Perhaps senior U.S. military leadership were and are students of military history and they warned the president that the strategy would fail and that explains in part why so many have been relieved. I admit that I have no inside information that leads me to that conclusion just logic and history.

Having said all that what are the options Trump has in front of him right now. Here are a few that come to my mind but I’m sure there are others I just can’t think of right now. First, he could just pack up and come home ala Ron Paul’s advice to come home and mind your own business. That would mark the end of the unipolar world and an admission that the empire stage of American history is ending and what results it would leave in the Middle East are anyone’s guess.

Second, he could just continue the blockade and the air war in the hope that it would finally work. Third, he could launch a ground invasion of Iran like the other wars the U.S. has fought recently in which air power proved unable to force surrender. Invading Iran with ground troops would be different from the other multi decade wars because I doubt that it could be done with minimal U.S. casualties.

Iran is a much bigger country with very different terrain across the country. It might even require a general mobilization of the American population with a draft and a conversion to war time production. It would most likely involve tens of thousands of casualties with many of our best young people coming home in boxes. In other words that would be one of the stupidest things an American president could possibly do, but they often do things that seem stupid to me.

Fourth, he could resort to the weapons he is trying to prevent Iran from acquiring. He could tell the Iranians that unless they comply with his demands he will use tactical nuclear weapons to destroy their known nuclear and missile sites. He could threaten to increase the intensity and frequency of the attacks until they complied. The results of the fourth option would be so catastrophic that I don’t even need to talk about them. It would forever remove from America the belief that we were once a moral and religious people.

Fifth, he could reach a negotiated settlement and to that end Iran offered a suggestion which was quickly rejected but only in part. Iran suggested that the blockade would be lifted and the Strait would be open for free commerce. That would obviously leave Iran in a position to close it anytime the nuclear negotiations did not go their way. The question of nuclear enrichment would be deferred until some day in the future when the sides would start talking again.

A lot of people would have accepted the settlement offer except that Trump knows what it really means. It would revert the conflict to status quo as if the war had not been fought except for the fact that Iran’s infrastructure along with much of its leadership are gone. The other message the settlement will send is if we close the Strait you cannot force it open with air power or your navy. That message was not one Donald Trump was willing to accept so he said; what part of no nuclear weapons did you not understand.

For now, the war continues and the blockade continues. It appears that the blockade is far more effective than air power proved to be. The blockade is hurting Iran economically to the point they want relief from it so perhaps soon they will relent and the president’s ego could be salved with victory. He admitted when he announced that the settlement was rejected that the blockade was more effective than the bombing. “They are choking like a stuffed pig and it is going to get worse for them.”

Perhaps the analogy of a stuffed pig is not the proper one to use with the Mullahs but that is Donald Trumps style not mine. He went on to say that they want to settle. They don’t want me to keep the blockade but I don’t want to lift the blockade because I don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon. Iran had to do their tough talk as well saying it would engage in “unprecedented military action.”

U.S. Central Command Admiral Brad Cooper said “Right now there are 41 tankers with 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime can’t sell. That’s an estimated $6billion-plus from which Iran’s leadership cannot financially benefit. The blockade is highly effective and U.S. forces remain fully committed to total enforcement.”

The Pentagon’s accounting office announced this week that so far the war has cost about $25 billion in taxpayer money. When I hear that I raise an eyebrow because I have a good idea what it costs to maintain a carrier battlegroup at sea and in-flight operations. I know what it costs to keep a carrier-based aircraft in combat mode let alone a massive B-52 or one of the stealth bombers. Tens of thousands of troops deployed with some 32thousand at least, bombs and missiles dropped on Iran. I just don’t think all that can be done for $25 billion.

The money is one thing but the war has cost at least 15 American lives and about 400 wounded although casualty figures have been very hard to come by. Let’s not forget the billions of dollars reportedly incurred in damage from Iranian missiles to U.S. bases across the entire region. Damage assessment in the Gulf States and in Israel to U.S. property has been almost impossible to obtain accurately so why lie about the $25 billion. If that department lies each year about the trillions that go unaccounted for by the GAO or Government Accounting Office I suppose it’s not a stretch for them to lie about the cost of war.

So, I will assume that the Iranians are politically astute enough to know how this war is affecting U.S. politics. It is terribly unpopular and is a threat to control of the House and Senate. In addition, I spoke to a gentleman the other day who had recently been in Ireland. He said that in the U.S, terms of measurement gasoline was running about $12.50 per gallon and heating oil was unaffordable for most people. That condition probably exists across Europe and would probably make Iran have confidence to just hang on because political pressure will force Trump’s hand. Time will tell if that works or not.

Finally, folks, according to UNICEF about 1800 Iranian children have been killed or wounded by the war on Iran. I don’t know if that number is accurate but if the accurate number is more than zero it’s too many. However, as you are painfully aware my opinion is that this war is a stupid waste of lives and resources and should end as soon as possible. Having said that the men and women fighting it are my brothers and sisters and I stand with them always.

At least that’s the way I see it,

Until next time folks,

This is Darrell Castle,

Thanks for listening.