Some Unexpected Results of War
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Darrell Castle talks about the war against Iran and the efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for the commerce of the world along with the unexpected results being felt around the world.
Transcription / Notes
SOME UNEXPECTED RESULTS OF WAR
Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 24th day of April in the year of our Lord 2026. I will be talking again about the war against Iran and the efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for the commerce of the world along with the unexpected results being felt around the world as a result of this war.
Let me start with a brief refresher regarding the history of the U.S. war with Iran before I get into unexpected results. The U.S. government back in 1953 started this long conflict by its overthrow of Mosaddegh who was popularly elect and his replacement with the Shah who was always seen as a U.S. puppet. If what I just said is true and I obviously believe that it is, then the U.S. has been in this conflict for 73 years. In 1953 the Korean War was just shutting down so maybe a new conflict was needed in the Middle East to feed the war machine, who knows.
Fast forward to today and we find that often history does repeat but barely is it noticed because it will always be different this time. We have lots of propaganda coming out of the war from both sides and unlike propaganda in earlier wars today’s propaganda reaches the whole world instantly through social media. In World Wars, for example, propaganda was designed only for the home populations of each side. Don’t worry we are winning etc. Except for the Tokyo Rose broadcasts to the U.S. Navy and the Axis Sally broadcasts to the U.S. bomber crews the propaganda was primarily to keep the population’s backs in the war effort.
To that end a ceasefire is announced from time to time and that mere announcement will usually calm the headlines and the markets for a brief time. The other side quickly violates the ceasefire or denies that it exists and the whole thing starts over. President Trump says they have agreed to everything and the Iranians say no we will keep our uranium and the Strait remains closed. It appears to be just propaganda back and forth or perhaps just wishful thinking, and the confusion is exacerbated by Iran’s lack of known leadership.
We do know a few things that appear to be factual, however. Six or seven weeks ago, the U.S. and Israel launched a preemptive attack, surprise attack, sneak attack depending on your point of view. This attack was launched in the midst of negotiations ala Pearl Harbor. When the Japanese did it they thought and hoped it would demoralize the American people into negotiations favorable to Japan but it had the opposite effect and I submit this attack did the same to Iran.
The U.S. dropped unprecedented amounts of bombs and missiles on Korea and Vietnam but neither surrendered and that fact of history seems to have gone unnoticed by the administration. The Iranians believe they are victims of an unprovoked attack which cost them dearly in terms of lives, treasure, and infrastructure. They think they are entitled to compensation for that and I submit that one way or another they will get it. In the meantime, the war is actually helping Iran by raising oil prices worldwide thus helping the Iranian export prices. They could insist on tolls through the Strait of Hormuz which they had never imposed before this war. I suspect that no permanent peace agreement will happen without compensation from the U.S. and/or Israel. Either way it would be on the backs of U.S. taxpayers.
My guess is that this war will continue for a time that we could call indefinite and here is one reason why. Trump apparently started this war at the behest of Netanyahu but now he aggressively insults and attacks anyone he perceives to have said a negative word about him and that includes foreign leaders. He doesn’t seem to understand that people remember the insults and foreign affairs of a great nation can’t be conducted like kids jostling each other on a school ground.
The problem of war in the Middle East is more than likely unsolvable as long a s Israel exists especially with its current leadership. Therefore, expect to be at war for a long time at least until it finally destroys the U.S. economy. Speaking of the U.S. and world economy let’s look at some results of the war or at least some things made worse by it. This all comes at a time when rising debt levels and rising interest obligations are pushing the U.S. into a more fragile state.
According to MoneyWeek U.S. debt has now exceeded 39 trillion. It has been only five months since it blew past 38 trillion. The debt has doubled since Trump was sworn in for his first term or about 10 years ago. No amount of bluster and bombast will erase certain facts such as the U.S. approaching 40 trillion amid rising interest rates, along with a coming debt crises. The U.S. has about 9 trillion of debt that must be refinanced or rolled over this cycle. Presumably short-term treasuries can be sold at about 3.5% but what if they can’t and it takes 5%. That would be catastrophic and would accelerate the crash to unstoppable speed.
I admit I’m no economist but that’s the way it looks to me from the numbers. The disturbing thing is that Washington seems to take no notice of it at all. This fiscal year, 2026 the defense budget or war budget as its now called is about $950 billion. Trump has requested an almost 60% increase to $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027. That’s all caused by the war right. Well, no, I’m afraid not folks because that doesn’t even include the costs of the Iranian war so he’s saying we need a 60% increase just to keep up. The U.S. has dropped tens of thousands of bombs and missiles on Iran and has lost a few aircraft along with great damage to bases all over the Middle East.
The U.S. has had to move its military out of the Persian Gulf region and move its carriers at least 1000 kilometers or about 620 miles from the conflict to avoid missile attacks. So, one unexpected result of the war is that the U.S. multibillion-dollar carriers are very vulnerable to cheap drone and missile attack. Iran apparently has quite a stockpile of those and reportedly China is resupplying them all the time.
Iran has an ace up its sleeve in this international poker game of death and that ace is the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a narrow strip of water that links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. Before the war started approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day or about 20% of global production passed through the Strait along with 20% of global LNG exports according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The Strait is so vitally important to the world economy that it’s a fair guess that disruption for a prolonged period would provoke a worldwide depression. Iran has spent decades accumulating the means to shut the Strait down. It has commanding geography with a thousand miles of coastline and many inlets where missiles can be stored and launched. The U.S. has discovered that even the U.S. Navy cannot police all of them. Just this week reportedly 24 Iranian tankers slipped through the U.S. blockade. If the Strait is not completely closed it is too dangerous for normal commercial shipping.
Oil and natural gas are everywhere and in everything. They are the most important of all commodities that the world depends on. The Far East today is the manufacturing center of the world or the world’s workshop and Middle East oil and gas keeps the Far East working. Until this war is resolved we can probably count on oil above 100$ per barrel and increasing shortages of many things we are used to having in abundance.
Ultimately the real danger is worldwide food production and the increasing cost of food caused by ever lower crop yields. This threat to the world’s food supply is being caused by the drastic reduction in fertilizer because so much of it is shipped through the gulf. The world needs fertilizer to grow crops and feed people and that is gradually being strangled. Once again, the unexpected results of war.
Perhaps the markets of the world have just been waiting for a pin to pop the bubble so we will see that higher prices for fuel will result in higher prices for everything and that is as inevitable as night follows day. The result of all this and the result of the war will be a significantly lower standard of living for the people of the world. So, propaganda tells us the Strait will remain open and the Mullahs will never have a nuclear weapon. Neither statement appears to be true at the current time so that leaves the U.S. in a very difficult position.
The U.S. could admit defeat and leave thus admitting that the Empire cannot fulfill its promises or the U.S. could resort to the unthinkable but I don’t see many other choices. In any event the petrodollar world appears to be ending. I heard Marco Rubio, the Secretary of everything say that Brazil, the largest country in South America just concluded a deal with China to trade in the Chinese currency.
The U.S. relies on the dollar as the world’s reserve to bully and sanction other countries but if they are not trading in the dollar then sanctions are no threat. So, the world is changing rapidly and not in favor of the American people or at least that’s my take on it.
Donald Trump has hung an Albatross around his neck and removing it is job number one. He might have to allow a strategic retreat to a more defensible line. The failure to reach that conclusion has resulted in the destruction of many armies and the loss of many wars. So, admit it was a mistake and find some way to reverse course no matter what Israel says about it. The longer he persists the worse it will get because he simply is not all powerful like he apparently thought he was, and neither is the United States.
Finally, folks, I hope this was just a tragic mistake and not something preplanned and far more sinister but the unexpected results of it are apparently only unexpected by us normal people who are concerned about working, living, and raising our kids in a peaceful world.
At least that’s the way I see it,
Until next time folks,
This is Darrell Castle,
Thanks for listening.
