Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and the Decline of Empires
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Darrell Castle returns to the discussion of war by talking about a war not spoken of so much since it has been driven from the headlines by the war against Iran.
Transcription / Notes
VLADIMIR PUTIN, DONALD TRUMP, AND THE DECLINE OF EMPIRES
Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 15th day of May in the year of our Lord 2026. My beat today is once again war but we visit a war not spoken of so much since it has been driven from the headlines by the war against Iran. Yes, we don’t hear much about Ukraine these days but it continues to cost lives, and resources and it continues to threaten the global geopolitical order.
I’m sure you remember, if you are a long-term sufferer of these Reports, that back in 2014 in the eastern provinces of Ukraine the people voted overwhelmingly to become or remain part of the Russian Federation but that decision didn’t sit well with Victoria Nuland who was the U.S. State Department representative there. She helped instigate a revolution that replaced the pro-Russian government with one more pro Europe and that led to a Russian invasion and the current war.
Mr. Putin, like President Trump, has found that sometimes wars are easier to get into than they are to get out of. I remember from the war archives reading the discussions from the Japanese general staff when they were planning the battle of Midway. The admiral who was to command their carriers said this will work if the Americans do exactly what we expect and want them to. Well, the Americans didn’t do what the Japanese expected and the Ukrainians haven’t done what the Russians expected.
When a Nation which seems to have overwhelming power goes to war against a much weaker opponent the powerful nation expects a quick and decisive, not to mention cheap, victory. Some examples would be the Soviet Union in World War ll, the Iranians of today, and the Ukrainians that are the subject for today. I mention World War ll a lot because last week the 9th of May was the annual celebration in Moscow of the Russian victory over Nazi Germany in the Great Patriotic War.
This year the celebration was different because for the first time in 18 years, Russia’s Victory Day parade had no tanks, no missile carriers, and no armored columns going through Red Square. Smaller regions in Russia have their own smaller parades and celebrations and many of those have been canceled altogether. The people of Moscow were told to expect to have no internet service on May 9th. The reason for all the caution and the stepped down celebration was fear of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks.
Yes, that’s right folks, the Russian Federation, successor to the Soviet Union, cannot traditionally celebrate its victory over Nazi Germany because once again it is at war inside its own borders. The ironic thing is that once again the war is being fueled, at least partially by German arms. The two wars being fought right now, Ukraine and Iran, in which larger more powerful nations attacked smaller weaker ones are changing the dynamics of global politics and showing us once again that the unexpected results of war can totally change the geopolitics of the world. Ukraine, supplied to the tune of hundreds of billions in arms and treasure, primarily by the United States but also by the European nations has apparently perfected drone and missile warfare and has become one of the world leaders in that technology. Ukraine is now a world leader as we will see but recently Great Britain, desperate to prolong the fight I guess, gave the Ukrainians 120,000 drones from their own inventory.
Ukraine, just an agricultural region on the border of Russia and only of any significance because of its proximity to Russia has become one of the world’s most proficient practitioners of the new art of unmanned warfare. They are so proficient that they attack deep inside Russia seemingly at will to the point that the Russian people are afraid to conduct a parade in their community.
Thousands of armed drones roam the skies looking for targets and although they are relatively easy to shoot down they are unstoppable in those numbers. Reports are that Iranian missiles and drones reach their targets about 10% of the time but that is against sophisticated air defense systems dedicated to stopping them. Against thousands, 10% is still a lot of destruction and in Ukraine/Russia I understand that they are virtually impossible to defend against.
People will tolerate what they are told will be a short and decisive war but only for so long. The propaganda sent to them daily and now through Social Media minute by minute grows tiring when the people realize that it is all just lies. Reports coming from Russia indicate that Putin is feeling the heat of public dissatisfaction with the war. Nobody will tell us exact casualty figures but they obviously number in the hundreds of thousands. War you never have to feel and never see unless you look for it is one thing but when the numbers of dead reach that high and especially when the economy is crumbling as is Russia’s people notice.
To that end, last week, President Putin made a phone call to President Trump and proposed a new economic relationship with the United States. The internal pressure on President Putin seems to be working because he is now saying the war is coming to a settlement when there is no battlefield evidence that is the case. He says now that he wants a negotiated settlement and he wants the Europeans to be a part of it. Ironically, he seems to have singled out Germany as the leader in the settlement negotiations.
He has maintained all along that he will not recognize Zelensky as the legitimate leader of Ukraine and would therefore not meet with him. That attitude has changed and now he wants to meet with him and he wants the Europeans to help the two of them broker a deal. I admit I am guessing here, but I think it’s an educated guess. Putin always wanted to make Russia a part of the European community but the EU bureaucrats would not have him at their parties. These recent inquiries indicate to me that he wants to renew the efforts to make Russia part of Europe.
Ordinarily, I don’t think the Europeans would give him the time of day but the world is far from ordinary right now and they just might listen this time. Why, because of Iran and behind that Israel. Putin might be trying to take advantage of anti-US sentiment in Europe due to the war in Iran. The Europeans obviously want no part of that adventure that Mr. Trump started so perhaps a Europe-Russia détente is now possible. European politicians have made some astonishingly anti-US statements lately.
Spain has doubled down on its refusal to let the US use its own bases in Spain for attacks on Iran. One of the leading candidates for Prime Minister of Spain is running on a campaign to take Spain out of NATO as a way to prevent that country from becoming involved in fighting Israel’s wars. So, Putin seeks to turn the clock back to when relations between Russia and Europe were better, but that was when Russia was weaker than now. Just as in the U.S. regarding Iran there is massive and growing opposition in Russia to the war in Ukraine. The Russian economy is reeling and rumors are that the power brokers in Russia have turned against him. He has reportedly increased security at his private residences.
It will be interesting to see how the U.S. will react to all this. President Trump left for China on Tuesday for a three-day summit with Mr. Xi. That summit has been in the planning process for months and has continued discussions despite the Iran war. The summit will obviously be primarily about the economic relationship between the U.S. and China but I’m sure Iran will be an important topic. China had Iranian officials in China just prior to Trump’s visit. The question being asked By American media is, will Trump trade Taiwan for Iran, but we will see.
Meanwhile back here in America the empire appears to be in decline and is always looking for someone to accelerate the process and Donald Trump appears to be the right man for the job. The empire killers of debt and war are now out of control. The debt has passed 39 trillion and interest payments have passed one trillion per year. Cutting taxes is a good idea if the cuts are matched with spending cuts but the President is removing the fuel tax to bring prices down with no corresponding spending cuts. The wars continue to cost more each day with no end in sight.
So much of the world’s economy depends on the price of oil so Trump starts a stupid war that closes the most important oil spigot in the world. It appears now that the U.S. cannot force Iran to do anything without risking major retaliation and resulting damage to the world economy with much higher oil prices. So, we are told the ceasefire is still in effect when it clearly isn’t. According to U.S. intelligence Iran has 75% of its missile capacity intact and almost all of its underground facilities have been reopened. Iran is now a superpower in control of the most important waterway in the world. Russia’s and other adversaries which depend on selling oil have had their incomes increase. So that all adds up to quite an achievement with no visible upside at all.
Finally, folks, if the American Empire is in decline under the weight of debt and war what better man could we have to manage it.
At least that’s the way I see it.
Until next time folks,
This is Darrell Castle,
Thanks for listening.
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