Who Won the India-Pakistan War?
Podcast: Download
Darrell Castle discusses the war between India and Pakistan which began over an apparent terrorist attack in the disputed territory of Kashmir a few weeks ago. He alleges that the real winner in the war so far has been China.
Transcription / Notes:
WHO WON THE INDIA-PAKISTAN WAR
Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 30th day of May in the year of our Lord 2025. I will be talking about the war between India and Pakistan which began over an apparent terrorist attack in the disputed territory of Kashmir a few weeks ago.
Yes, rather than hide or delay the lead I will tell you right away that there is no real winer as yet but in the initial battle the winner was China and in this report I will attempt to defend that view. First, to set up my argument it will be necessary to review a little history. It is often said that generals fight the last war and in many respects I believe that to be an accurate assessment.
For example, coming out of WWl the navies of the world viewed the battleship as the future of naval warfare because it had proven so decisive in the naval battles of that war. The air arm of the navy didn’t begin until the 1920’s and that was just a primitive experiment. In the 1930’s seagoing nations started to develop aircraft and aircraft carriers and to experiment with them but the battleship was still expected to dominate the next naval war. Even the Japanese put their effort into battleships including the Yamato, the world’s largest.
When the war started with the attack on Pearl Harbor and then the battle of the Coral Sea and Midway it was soon obvious that aircraft carriers were the future, not battleships. The U.S. had three carriers in the Pacific after Pearl Harbor and the Yorktown was lost at Midway June 4, 1942, but within 2 years they had 17. When the war ended and the U.S. had the world’s money so it could buy anything it continued to put its effort into the ships that won the war in the Pacific. When nuclear power entered the navy the cost of an aircraft carrier continued to skyrocket until today it exceeds $13 billion.
Only one nation can afford to build and equip 13 of those ships and as a result the U.S. Navy has dominated the seas since WWll. Other nations such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran had to find some cheaper way to keep up and they did. While the U.S. was building $13 billion aircraft carriers to project power around the world those nations devoted their resources to building relatively cheap missiles to counter them.
My theory then is that the aircraft carrier, like the battleship before it, has had its day and the future of warfare will be robotic, ai generated, and probably in space. With that background we look at what is happening in one of the most dangerous corners of the world today and that is Kashmir where the borders of Pakistan, India and China converge. The immediate cause of the outbreak of war was a terrorist attack on April 22 that killed 26 Indians. People get really upset when they are attacked by terrorists and they demand that their nation’s government do something.
The Indians did do something and that resulted in one of the most interesting air battles since WWll. During the battle of the Coral Sea in 1942 the U.S. and Japanese navies fought a battle in which each side had ships sunk but the opposing ships didn’t even see each other. The battle was entirely between carrier-based aircraft from about 200 miles apart. The Indians and Pakistanis engaged in an air battle using the latest fighter aircraft in their inventories and the interesting thing is that the entire battle was fought in what pilots call BVR or beyond visual range combat. BVR is completely different from the air combat maneuvering and the dogfighting videos we see from WWll.
It pits aircraft, their radars, and guided missiles against each other at extremely long ranges. Each aircraft tries to acquire radar lock on his opponent before the opponent can acquire him and then he fires a missile along that radar lock guide straight to the other aircraft.
The French build formidable weapons systems and they build the defense mechanisms to protect those systems. For example, the French built the air defense system used by Saddam Hussein in the first Gulf war. The U.S. was finally able to persuade the French to reveal the best counter to that system. Now, international conglomerates build weapons systems for everybody so sometimes it’s hard to know the players, but in Kashmir it was a little more clear. That’s because the Pakistanis used Chinese missiles and most importantly the Chinese integrated air combat system incorporated into their own air combat system.
The Indians used primarily French equipment especially the Dassault Rafale fighter which French reports sometimes refer to as a flying masterpiece. The Rafale is a 4.5-generation aircraft meaning it is reported to be superior to the 4th generation but not quite the 5th generation. It is a multi-role fighter capable of speeds of 1.8 Mach and it has stealth capability at least partially.
Well, the Indians did retaliate for the terrorist attack which they believed to have originated from Pakistan. On the morning of May 7th India launched what they called Operation Sindoor consisting of missile and drone attacks on ground targets inside Pakistan. This is where the story gets a little confusing because a third player enters. The Indians get aircraft from France primarily but also from Russia such as the Mig 29 and SU 30. Pakistan has some U.S. F-16’s but none were used in this battle.
Back to history for a moment because this reminds me of how NAZI Germany entered the Spanish Civil War as a way to test aircraft and pilots for the coming war. When WWll started in Europe the German pilots were already experienced veterans. The Chinese apparently did the same thing with their integrated air combat system supplied to Pakistan. They supplied an entire integrated system not just their aircraft because the French Rafale was superior to Pakistani jets at least the French thought so.
What happened in the air battle remains undisclosed but we know that they fought from behind their own borders and at ranges which at times exceeded 100 miles. The battle reports are very sketchy and as a result it is very difficult to learn exactly what happened but apparently the Indian jets were able to destroy some Pakistani aircraft on the ground but in the air it was a different story, apparently. Western news outlets including the New York Times and the BBC reported that the air battle showcased the increasing lethality of Chinese jets and missiles against Western aircraft. In other words, the Chinese have had little recent warfighting experience against peer rivals so this was a chance to test their systems.
The Chinese and Pakistanis have claimed 5 Indian jets destroyed in air combat while losing none of their own. Three Rafales, one Mig-29, and one SU-30 but it is not possible currently to confirm the accuracy of that. The three Rafales are reported as definite with the other two as possible. They were downed by Chinese J-10C aircraft armed with PL-15E long range air to air missiles. To the West this says that after many years and many billions, along with IT theft from the West, the Chinese were finally able to test in real combat and the result was rather alarming.
The Chinese navy is acting as if this battle was definitive as to their superiority. They conduct naval drills across the Pacific and have encircled Taiwan in drills as if to say it’s a matter of when not if. China’s focus on technology and economics leave its new military systems largely untested in real world combat especially against an enemy as formidable as the U.S. Still, this Pakistani test was something for them to crow about and it has apparently given them a high level of confidence.
The Chinese aircraft company Chengdu Corporation has joined with Pakistan Aeronautical Complex to jointly develop the latest Chinese fighter jet the JF-17. Is any of this good news for the West, I don’t think so but neither should we exaggerate it. The Chinese have supplied Pakistan with entire systems of avionics, engines and weapons which all worked together and apparently the Indians were relying on their 4.5 Gen fighter, the Rafale, but not an integrated system and that reliance was not effective. The Chinese have put a lot of effort into making the Pakistani air force top of the line with training in how to use their systems. Other countries have reported problems with Chinese equipment and some have had to ground their Chinese jets because they could not get them to work properly within their own systems, but the Chinese personal involvement with the Pakistani air force seems to have solved the issues of concern.
India and Pakistan are both countries today but that is a relatively short development. Independence occurred for them in 1947 when Great Britain withdrew from colonial status and granted independence. The result has left a lot of disputed borders and unfinished business between the two. This current war is a long line of struggles over Kashmir. It is far more dangerous than ever because both countries are nuclear armed. Are they crazy enough to use nuclear weapons over a border dispute. I would never rule out the craziness of those who run countries. There seems to be something about power that drives people mad and after all what good is power if you don’t use it.
There are some very disturbing aspects to this war if you want to call it that. It is fast escalating just as the war in Ukraine escalated with new weapons including drones, satellite surveillance and targeting, artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles, some of which are nuclear capable. These systems have all been deployed and they weren’t even available for the last India-Pakistan War which ended about 2003. Escalation happens faster when new systems are deployed because there is a need to match or respond to them. For example, India is now in discussions to purchase the most advanced Russian S-400 missile defense system to counter Chinese missiles.
Another disturbing aspect to this struggle is that both countries have attacked inside the other country far from the dispute in Kashmir just as in Ukraine. I imagine that the leaders of both countries are working around the clock to find ways to destroy each other.
Finally, folks, war is an idiotic trait of the depravity of man and this one is just a fine example of the early stages of the progression to the next level of technology.
At least that’s the way I see it,
Until next time folks,
This is Darrell Castle,
Thanks for listening.
You May Also Like
The Classical Gold Standard
Independence
